Second SRG survey: SVP initiative against "10-million Switzerland" tips to No

As GfS Bern further explains, the decision is likely to fall in the political center and among non-affiliated voters. While the No trend has further solidified in the left-wing camp, women are now clearly positioning themselves against the initiative; men remain more open to limiting immigration (50 percent Yes compared to 40 percent among women). Regionally, the picture is differentiated: French-speaking Switzerland clearly rejects the proposal, German-speaking Switzerland narrowly, and Italian-speaking Switzerland continues to lean towards acceptance.

In terms of content, according to political scientist Lukas Golder, the argumentation has completely reversed. While initially it was primarily the proponents who could score points with the overloading of housing, transport, schools, and hospitals, opponents are now leading with two arguments: the importance of the bilateral path with the EU and the need for skilled workers. Thus, 65 percent of respondents agree with the statement that the bilateral path is central to Switzerland and should not be jeopardized.

Bilateral path and skilled workers as main arguments

FDP co-president Susanne Vincenz-Stauffacher explained to the media that at party meetings, it is evident that members acknowledge existing problems but quickly come to the conclusion in discussions that the SVP initiative is the wrong path: "There is agreement that problems exist, but in discussion, it is quickly realized that the SVP initiative is the wrong path." Former Center president and Zug National Councilor Gerhard Pfister also expressed confidence in May that a majority of the population wants to preserve the bilateral agreements: "The surveys made it clear that a majority of the population wants to stick with the bilateral agreements."

The Leewas Institute survey commissioned by Tamedia and "20 Minuten," also published on Wednesday, comes to a very similar result with 52 percent No and 47 percent Yes. Compared to the first Leewas survey, approval has decreased by five percentage points, with the decline being more pronounced among Center sympathizers than among FDP sympathizers. According to Leewas, the mobilization capacity of both camps will ultimately be decisive.

Discrepancy between expectation and voting intention

A striking discrepancy exists between current voting intentions and the expected acceptance of the initiative: 55 percent of respondents expect the popular initiative to be accepted on June 14 – a figure that has increased by six percentage points compared to the first survey. The concern about looming overpopulation continues to have a significant mobilizing effect, according to Golder's assessment: "One senses that this concern is developing a lot of momentum."

At the same time, the political scientist points out that events such as the Winterthur knife attack, which occurred after the survey period, could mobilize voters and lead to re-evaluations. Such incidents could also bring people to the polls who did not originally intend to participate – effects that a survey cannot capture. Golder also points to the comparison with the Mass Immigration Initiative of 2014, showing that protest votes can be decisive: at that time, approval rose from 37 to 42 percent between the first and second waves.

Content of the initiative

In addition to the popular initiative, GfS Bern also surveyed voters on the revision of the Civil Service Act, which aims to make it more difficult to switch from military to civil service. 48 percent intend to vote rather or definitely Yes, and 46 percent rather or definitely No. Approval has decreased compared to the first wave. Support remains high in the bourgeois camp, while the base and electorate of the Greens, SP, and GLP now reject the proposal even more clearly.

The SVP initiative demands that the Federal Council and Parliament take measures if the Swiss population grows to 9.5 million before 2050. If such measures prove ineffective, Switzerland would have to terminate the agreement on the free movement of persons with the EU as an "emergency brake" – which would also entail the termination of the remaining Bilateral I agreements. Temporarily admitted persons would no longer receive a residence permit and could not be naturalized, and family reunification would also be restricted. From 2050 onwards, the Federal Council could also raise the threshold by any excess births.

Methodologically, the second SRG trend survey is based on 19,400 evaluated responses from eligible voters (15,625 from German-speaking Switzerland, 3,307 from French-speaking Switzerland, 468 from Italian-speaking Switzerland). Of these, 514 were reached by telephone, 18,387 online via opt-in, and 499 via social media. The statistical margin of error is ±2.8 percentage points.